Are MMO Subscription Plans Changing Forever?

With the impending launch of Guild Wars 2, there’s a lot of talk about whether there’s still a market for subscription-based MMOs. Plenty of people feel that buy-to-play (BTP) and free-to-play (FTP) games will soon take the place of subscriptions altogether, but the same players and pundits have been saying that since the first Guild Wars came out. When Lord of the Rings Online went free-to-play, it was supposed to signal the end of the subscription model. That hasn’t happened.

The truth is that developers know the best way for their particular game to make money. Some games work better free-to-play, some work better buy-to-play, and for some the subscription model still works best. Of the three most anticipated games of 2012, two are subscription-based; widen the window back to December 2011 and three of the four are. Star Wars: The Old Republic, Tera and The Secret World all launched on subscriptions.

And while The Old Republic suffered a mass exodus after its first month, it has been highly successful on subscriptions: 1.8 million players as of the March investor call. With a December 2011 launch, that’s at least two full paying months from its customers, allowing for the free 30 days that came with the box. Run the math, 1.8 million players times $15 a month, and you’re looking at roughly $27 million in additional revenue every month over a pure buy-to-play game. Is that more than EA and BioWare would have made with BTP or a free-to-play cash shop? We don’t know. But they clearly believe a subscription plan is the best way to go for them right now.

So the death of the subscription-based MMO has been wildly exaggerated. Having said all that, what Elder Scrolls Online decides to do with its payment plans could change everything.